Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 15 2020 | 1286 | 20231 | 43 | 6 | 381 | 461 |
| September 16 2020 | 1336 | 20533 | 45 | 6 | 395 | 498 |
| September 17 2020 | 1398 | 20641 | 45 | 6 | 421 | 538 |
| September 18 2020 | 1476 | 20972 | 45 | 6 | 476 | 594 |
| September 19 2020 | 1527 | 21008 | 47 | 6 | 490 | 622 |
| September 20 2020 | 1586 | 21014 | 47 | 6 | 526 | 645 |
| September 21 2020 | 1617 | 21015 | 47 | 6 | 519 | 640 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.7% | 9 | 0.08% | 10 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 12.9 | 23.3% | 121 | 0.89% | 146 | 1.07% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 26.0 | 54.5% | 283 | 1.35% | 364 | 1.74% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 3.7 | 6.4% | 33 | 0.24% | 37 | 0.27% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 3.0 | 4.8% | 25 | 0.24% | 28 | 0.27% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 1.7 | 3.5% | 18 | 0.14% | 23 | 0.18% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.1 | 4.4% | 23 | 0.2% | 25 | 0.22% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.7 | 1.3% | 7 | 0.07% | 7 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 31 | 51.1 | 100% | 519 | 0.5% | 640 | 0.61% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 15 2020 | 423 | 13084 | 17 | 0 | 47 | 73 |
| September 16 2020 | 434 | 13161 | 17 | 0 | 56 | 80 |
| September 17 2020 | 447 | 13295 | 18 | 0 | 65 | 83 |
| September 18 2020 | 456 | 13383 | 18 | 0 | 71 | 85 |
| September 19 2020 | 466 | 13490 | 18 | 0 | 77 | 90 |
| September 20 2020 | 476 | 13728 | 18 | 0 | 81 | 98 |
| September 21 2020 | 480 | 13887 | 18 | 0 | 77 | 98 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 15 2020 | 401 | 8142 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 29 |
| September 16 2020 | 403 | 8206 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 28 |
| September 17 2020 | 405 | 8249 | 20 | 4 | 13 | 24 |
| September 18 2020 | 407 | 8297 | 20 | 4 | 14 | 25 |
| September 19 2020 | 411 | 8357 | 20 | 4 | 18 | 26 |
| September 20 2020 | 420 | 8356 | 20 | 4 | 26 | 32 |
| September 21 2020 | 420 | 8356 | 20 | 4 | 26 | 28 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 15 2020 | 1889 | 22605 | 41 | 2 | 577 | 687 |
| September 16 2020 | 2011 | 23463 | 41 | 2 | 685 | 803 |
| September 17 2020 | 2121 | 23609 | 41 | 2 | 784 | 882 |
| September 18 2020 | 2375 | 23620 | 41 | 2 | 1024 | 1089 |
| September 19 2020 | 2475 | 23739 | 41 | 2 | 1105 | 1163 |
| September 20 2020 | 2568 | 23777 | 41 | 2 | 1123 | 1242 |
| September 21 2020 | 2622 | 23848 | 41 | 2 | 1099 | 1285 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 42.9 | 36.2% | 398 | 2.4% | 463 | 2.8% |
| 20-29 | 29 | 57.9 | 50.3% | 553 | 2.6% | 637 | 2.99% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 3.4 | 3.1% | 34 | 0.25% | 37 | 0.27% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 4.0 | 3% | 33 | 0.24% | 46 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 2.6 | 2.1% | 23 | 0.16% | 32 | 0.23% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 2.4 | 2% | 22 | 0.16% | 29 | 0.2% |
| 70+ | 6 | 4.1 | 3.3% | 36 | 0.28% | 37 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 54 | 117.6 | 100% | 1099 | 0.93% | 1285 | 1.09% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 15 2020 | 7896 | 175620 | 346 | 41 | 1935 | 2376 |
| September 16 2020 | 7984 | 176565 | 347 | 41 | 1866 | 2420 |
| September 17 2020 | 8242 | 179874 | 349 | 41 | 2034 | 2603 |
| September 18 2020 | 8455 | 182213 | 350 | 41 | 2028 | 2656 |
| September 19 2020 | 8635 | 184706 | 350 | 41 | 2146 | 2674 |
| September 20 2020 | 8815 | 186173 | 352 | 41 | 1844 | 2697 |
| September 21 2020 | 8895 | 187412 | 352 | 41 | 1641 | 2687 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 3.3 | 1.8% | 30 | 0.05% | 36 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 32 | 55.9 | 43.9% | 721 | 1.01% | 1371 | 1.93% |
| 20-29 | 20 | 52.3 | 32.9% | 540 | 0.52% | 851 | 0.82% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 12.1 | 6.8% | 112 | 0.15% | 146 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 11.7 | 6.4% | 105 | 0.16% | 120 | 0.18% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 7.9 | 4.4% | 73 | 0.11% | 84 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 4.3 | 2.1% | 35 | 0.06% | 48 | 0.09% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.4 | 1.5% | 25 | 0.05% | 31 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 80 | 149.9 | 100% | 1641 | 0.3% | 2687 | 0.49% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 15 2020 | 91304 | 1284525 | 6406 | 1220 | 11004 | 14720 |
| September 16 2020 | 92712 | 1295313 | 6454 | 1228 | 11519 | 15583 |
| September 17 2020 | 94746 | 1304724 | 6522 | 1231 | 12986 | 16890 |
| September 18 2020 | 97279 | 1315258 | 6569 | 1238 | 14802 | 17925 |
| September 19 2020 | 99562 | 1325447 | 6619 | 1241 | 16228 | 19262 |
| September 20 2020 | 101227 | 1332102 | 6653 | 1242 | 16346 | 20034 |
| September 21 2020 | 102498 | 1337627 | 6692 | 1244 | 16248 | 20738 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 26 | 46.0 | 2.4% | 396 | 0.06% | 508 | 0.08% |
| 10-19 | 200 | 352.3 | 20.5% | 3325 | 0.44% | 4521 | 0.6% |
| 20-29 | 341 | 505.3 | 29.3% | 4755 | 0.63% | 6054 | 0.8% |
| 30-39 | 189 | 216.9 | 11.5% | 1873 | 0.25% | 2335 | 0.31% |
| 40-49 | 143 | 197.9 | 10.6% | 1728 | 0.25% | 2096 | 0.3% |
| 50-59 | 152 | 214.3 | 11.7% | 1894 | 0.23% | 2387 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 115 | 141.7 | 7.7% | 1247 | 0.16% | 1549 | 0.2% |
| 70+ | 105 | 117.4 | 6.3% | 1030 | 0.16% | 1288 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 1271 | 1791.7 | 100% | 16248 | 0.28% | 20738 | 0.36% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61.2 | 107.3 | 173.9 | 51.1 | 28.6 | 29.9% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.2 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 6.6% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 6.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 108.7 | 279.7 | 299.3 | 117.6 | 29.4 | 39% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.1 | 192.9 | 81.9 | 149.9 | 190.3 | 7.5% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35.6 | 59.7 | 80 | 1791.7 | 1003.6 | 16.4% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 22.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.36 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-12 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1365"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges